The Media is Not the Territory

The media is not the territory. It’s a play on the phrase “the map is not the territory” coined by Alfred Korzybski back in 1931. The original phrase means that representations or models of reality are not the same as reality itself. Put another way, just because a map (or any other model) represents a particular aspect of the real world doesn't mean it is the real world. The map simplifies and abstracts complex details for the purpose of understanding or navigation, but it can't capture every nuance and detail of the actual territory.

The media is not the territory is a natural continuation of this phrase as media representations, including news, social media, and other forms of communication, are not the same as the reality they are supposed to depict. The message here is simple. What you see in all forms of media is not genuine. Awareness of this is crucial in the modern era when we are relentlessly bombarded with media. Think about the thousands of social media posts you see daily, the countless advertisements online and offline, the conflicting presentation and portrayal of events in the news, the algorithmic and addictive curated content you are fed nonstop throughout your waking hours, the movies, books, and tv shows your eyes are glued to, and this is just the tip of the iceberg. It is easy to see how this onslaught on our senses and minds the ability has to not only shape how we think but also the very nature of reality to us. The argument is this, humans are better off when we are more in tune with reality, the media tends to distort this connection and it is through reminders to ourselves that the media is not the territory that we can best come back to reality. Believing too much in media can lead to unhappiness and poor decision-making. For example, social media, movies, and books often set unrealistic expectations, while news sources can provide biased or incomplete information. These influences can distort our perceptions and lead to ill-informed opinions and decisions. To avoid these pitfalls, it’s crucial to first be aware and then to critically evaluate the media we consume.

Media refers to the various means and channels used to communicate information to the public. It can be anything from music all the way to the news and beyond but the main two forms I would like to address and use as examples in this article are news media and social media.

News media can pose significant dangers by blurring the line between representation and reality. Often, news coverage is not a direct reflection of the world but a constructed narrative shaped by editorial choices, framing techniques, and sometimes sensationalism. This means what we see on the news is often more about crafting engaging stories than providing an accurate portrayal of events. Headlines might be designed to grab attention rather than convey nuance, and coverage can be selectively presented to fit specific agendas or attract viewers. Additionally, biases—whether political, ideological, or financial—can further distort the portrayal of news, leading to skewed perspectives and reinforcing existing prejudices. This combination of sensationalism and bias can make us believe that the world is more dramatic or polarised than it might actually be. When the news media shapes our understanding through lenses that prioritise impact or bias over accuracy, it risks leading us to form opinions and make decisions based on a flawed version of reality. It’s crucial to approach news media with a critical eye, recognising that what we consume is often an interpretation rather than a comprehensive mirror of the world. The media is not the territory.

Social media often creates a distorted view of reality that can be surprisingly deceptive. What we’re usually seeing isn’t an accurate portrayal of someone’s day-to-day life but rather a highlight reel of their most exceptional moments. People tend to share their peak experiences and appearances. The rare, perfect photos and videos that capture fleeting instances of joy, success, or adventure. And it’s not just about sharing these moments as they are; they’re frequently edited and enhanced to look even more dazzling. When you’re scrolling through your feed, remember that what you’re often seeing is a one in a million moment edited to become a one in a billion moment. This constant barrage of polished perfection can easily make you feel like your own life is falling short by comparison. It’s important to remember that everyone has their highs and lows. Social media, in this sense, can be more misleading than traditional storytelling because it masquerades as a genuine portrayal of real life, when in reality, it’s often just a curated collection of highlights. While social media can be a powerful tool for connection and expression, it’s crucial not to let it trick you into believing that its curated content is the norm or that you should constantly measure up to it. The next time you find yourself feeling inadequate after scrolling through someone’s feed, remind yourself that what you’re seeing is just the surface of a much more complex reality. The media is not the territory.

Much more can and should be written on this topic, this is not intended to be an airtight argument and I have ironically taken the liberty of making a few assumptions without presenting a full argument for them, but I have done so for the purpose of saving time and effort for the reader. To keep the message short and sweet: never forget the media is not the territory. You must always critically evaluate the media you are receiving, or you will undoubtedly become a victim of significant distortions of reality perception throughout your life.

The Mandate of Capital

The Mandate of Heaven is a political philosophy concept from ancient China used to justify the rule of the emperor and dynasties for thousands of years. The mandate is based on the belief that heaven (天) grants the right to rule to a just and virtuous leader, it is a form of divine endorsement that legitimises the ruler's authority. The concept emphasises that the ruler must govern with virtue and benevolence as the ruler's ability to maintain the mandate depends on their moral conduct and effectiveness in leading the country. Natural disasters, famines, and social unrest were interpreted as signs that heaven was displeased with the ruler and such events could indicate that the ruler had lost the mandate, leading to potential rebellion and regime change. If a ruler or dynasty lost the Mandate of Heaven, it could be transferred to a new ruler or dynasty. This justified the rise of new dynasties and the replacement of old ones, providing a moral and philosophical rationale for political change in the nation.

While the Mandate of Heaven is no longer as relevant as it once was with the end of Imperial China, there exists a natural Mandate of Capital in the world that shares similarities. The flow and story of capital is rather similar to what is outlined above. Possessing capital is one that entails power and responsibility as controlling the allocation of resources dictates how us humans and society live, the ability to retain this capital requires the continued stability of the general economic system one is in, as well as the continued support of individuals with their labours and consumption. Sustained misallocation of capital whether by an individual or larger entity always results in their demise over the long-term.

I must also define what I am referring to when it comes to the term capital. It is a word with varying definitions and connotations based upon the context of use, so for the purposes of this writing, I will define capital as any asset that is used in the production of goods and services, including physical, human, financial, and natural resources. In essence, capital is any asset that confers value or benefit to its owners. Furthermore, while it may seem obvious, I must clarify that capital is not capitalism. There seems to be a notion by some that allocating capital is exclusive to capitalists, but that would be an oversight. Capitalism is a form of economic ideology but other forms of economic and social organisation ideology, whether it be socialism, communism, anarchism or anything in between, directly or indirectly deal with how we allocate and use capital.

The truth is, throughout history and for the foreseeable future, the allocation of capital is at the forefront of every decision we as individuals and a collective make. No matter your beliefs in how wealth should be distributed, if wealth is the root of evil, how society should be organised, and so on, how capital will be allocated is a question we are constantly asking and attempting to answer. Even in saying that you reject all notions of material wealth and capital, you are stating a belief in how capital should be allocated and utilised. Capital dictates how we live our lives.

To receive the power and privileges of capital, one must first obtain it. Depending on the economic system one is a part of, the methods to do so will differ from a small to large degree. As a general rule of thumb, capital is obtained through the support of the individuals within a system. Whether it be through monetary consumption, direct trade, ideological support, human labour, or more, capital is obtained through the individuals of a system entrusting one with their stake of goods and services, whether it be through a transaction of some sort or a non-reciprocal transfer. For example, it could be the payment of money to one party in return for goods or service. It could be volunteer work and donations in support of a political campaign or movement. If there is enough collective support, it could be the willingness to surrender all private capital to state control in certain political and economic systems. The list goes on. What matters is that capital is obtained through capturing the imagination and commitment of others, whether it be through trading goods or services, offering a new political system, and so on, it is through the willingness of others to exchange their time, labour, resources, knowledge and products that one can obtain capital for themselves to dictate. Those who do not possess adequate capital face a precarious situation. On the most extreme end and most seriously, without adequate access to capital and resources, one will struggle to meet their basic survival needs. However, to a more moderate impact, the lack of adequate capital restricts the ability of individuals to shape the world as they please. They are limited in spending and thus allocating resources to the fullest degree in which they may desire to do so. Regardless of what economic system you preach, obtaining capital is vital for survival and the achievement of your goals.

The distribution of capital is vital, and those who possess must endure great responsibility. Whether through their everyday consumption patterns, to large entities making influential allocation decisions, how capital is spent will ultimately shape the world and provide the foundation of whether they will be able to maintain this power of capital allocation over the long term. Once capital is obtained, it is usually firstly used for personal use, to satisfy the individual desire to improve or maintain living standards in their private lives. The excess capital, which is often quite significant for those with the most power and influence in any capital system will face large questions in how to wield the surplus capital they have control over. The projects invested in; the people being paid capital and how resources are generally being distributed is a fairly reliable indicator of what the future world will look like. Poor capital allocation will lead to a loss of capital. Extravagant and wasteful spending of capital tends to breed instability in economic systems, one only has to look at past kings with ill-advised allocation of resources and the instability created when the subjects of the king suffered in living standards due to poor capital allocation decisions. The poor allocation in these scenarios often led to the downfall of the King and often the system they had built around them and would bring about new individuals into the positions of power and the system they would build around them. In every system and era imaginable, how capital is utilised plays a strong factor in determining the success and failure on an institutional and individual level. How we allocate our currency is ultimately how we allocate our resources.

The point being this, regardless of your political beliefs and the system you live in, it is through the control of capital that we are most able to influence and shape the material world to how we want it to be. Hence, much like the Mandate of Heaven, there is a natural Mandate of Capital. Whoever can obtain and allocate capital shall be far more able to shape the material world as they see fit. Those who are bestowed with the responsibility of capital should allocate responsibly, for the misuse of capital will lead to the loss of capital for those individuals, whether it be through the allocation power of individuals in free market systems, or the collective power of the state in controlled economies, or so on. Without the will and support of the people, one may maintain their capital foothold in the short term, but in the long term, their capital foothold will collapse. Without the people’s support and labour, no economic system and no capital allocators within an economic system can survive. The Mandate of Capital is simple, in the long term, those who create value relative to what the people want will have the power of allocation, and they may maintain their position of strength with wise and responsible allocation of resources, but if they fail in this role and lose the support of the people, the capital system and allocators will change as the people see fit. This mandate applies to the average person working a common job to the selected few with the privilege of wealth, it simply manifests to varying degrees.

Humanity’s Magnum Opus

"Magnum opus" is a Latin term that translates to "great work" in English. It refers to an artist's, writer's, or composer's greatest and most important piece of work. This term is often used to describe a masterpiece that stands out as the pinnacle of someone's creative or professional achievements. For example, Leonardo da Vinci's Mona Lisa is widely regarded as his magnum opus, exemplifying the heights of artistic innovation and expression. Reflecting on the magnum opuses of great individuals throughout history raises a profound question: what is humanity’s magnum opus? What singular achievement stands as the crowning glory of hundreds of thousands of years of evolution, change, invention, discovery, and history?

There is a seemingly endless list of achievements that could stand as humanity’s greatest achievement. It has become easy to become desensitised to the advancements our species has made. Imagine being the first humans born and consider their desperate fight for survival on a daily basis, and the limited choice of human companions they would have had throughout their entire lives. Imagine the lack of language, communication, and tools they had at their disposal. Now imagine how all these years later how vastly life is for us today. We have built large social institutions, cities, and structures, even the concept of a nation would have been a revolutionary idea in the start. The internet has changed how information and data is communicated as well as forged increased interconnectedness, even the ability to send physical letters would have been a miracle when you think about how complex that operation would be if you were the first humans starting from scratch. Electricity has rewired and improved living conditions for all of us. We’ve been to space and explored what we could once only look up at with our human eyes and dream about it. The world has changed so much as a result of human ingenuity and imagination. The world we live in is, for large part, surely unrecognisable and incomprehensible for our far gone ancestors. Perhaps even more impressive is that in achieving these accomplishments, we have specialised to such an extent that only a select few need to understand how and do them, while the rest of humanity can still share in the benefits. What percentage of the population know the general theory, let alone have the ability to create from scratch, of how the internet works? For something that is about as ubiquitous as a thing can be, only a small percentage of the population needs to deal with the inner workings of this achievement.

On a side note, while some may argue that humanity’s progress has been overrated, focusing solely on the growth in material wealth and living standards rather than the quality of thought and emotional richness, I believe this perspective overlooks a crucial aspect of our advancement. Our ability to build knowledge—not just in the sciences but also in the arts— on the shoulders of giants before us is a remarkable privilege that offers priceless inspiration for our own thinking. Learning from the great philosophers and thinkers of the past enables us to engage with profound ideas that can shape our perspectives and inspire creativity. Moreover, the sharing of ideas is more accessible than ever, allowing diverse perspectives to reach wider audiences and fostering a culture of collaboration. As such, to suggest that the average person lacks the potential to think in a more nuanced and insightful manner—beyond mere material experiences—seems misguided. With the tools and ideas we’ve developed over time, individuals, on average, are far more able develop deeper thinking, leading to both intellectual and emotional growth that enriches the potential of our understanding individually and societally of non-material questions of existence.

Humanity's journey is marked by numerous achievements that could be considered its magnum opuses, reflecting our profound capacity for innovation, creativity, and resilience. To fully appreciate the magnitude of our accomplishments, as you read the following list of human achievements, contemplate the true complexity of each one. Consider whether you truly understand the process and meaning behind these achievements yourself, and think about the vast network of human interactions and ideas upon which each is built. It is no exaggeration to say that many of these milestones result from thousands of years of knowledge, passed down and expanded upon by the brightest minds across generations.

In the realm of science and technology, we have witnessed ground-breaking advancements that have transformed our understanding of the world. The Theory of Relativity revolutionised our perception of space, time, and gravity, while the discovery of DNA's structure laid the foundation for modern genetics. The development of the Internet has reshaped global communication and connectivity, making information more accessible than ever before. Space exploration milestones, such as the Apollo moon landing and Mars rover missions, have expanded our knowledge of the universe, revealing the vastness beyond our planet. The Human Genome Project, mapping the entirety of our genetic material, marked a significant leap in medical science, opening new frontiers in personalised medicine and genetic research. When considering these accomplishments, reflect on the immense resources, coordination, and ingenuity required to create even something as commonplace as a laptop—an intricate device that relies on a sophisticated ecosystem to function effectively.

In arts and culture, humanity has produced masterpieces that exemplify our creative heights. Leonardo da Vinci's Mona Lisa stands as a pinnacle of Renaissance artistry, while Shakespeare’s works have left an indelible mark on English literature and drama, influencing generations of writers and thinkers. Beethoven's Symphony No. 9 is celebrated for its emotional depth and complexity, encapsulating the spirit of human expression. Architectural marvels like the Great Wall of China and the Pyramids of Giza reflect not only human ingenuity but also the collaborative efforts of countless individuals across generations.

Philosophically, movements such as the Enlightenment emphasised reason and individualism, fundamentally shaping modern democratic thought and human rights ideologies. Meanwhile, Confucianism has deeply influenced moral values and social structures, particularly in East Asia, promoting harmony and respect within communities. The existentialist movement further explored the meaning of existence and individual freedom, prompting profound reflections on the human experience.

In the realm of economics, transformative ideas have reshaped how we think about wealth, markets, and societies. Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations laid the groundwork for modern economics, introducing concepts such as the invisible hand and the division of labour, which continue to underpin capitalist economies today. Karl Marx’s critique of capitalism in Das Kapital provided a contrasting framework, influencing political and economic movements that shaped global geopolitics. John Maynard Keynes revolutionised macroeconomic theory with his ideas on government intervention during economic downturns, helping guide policy during the Great Depression and post-World War II reconstruction. The development of modern financial systems and the stock market has also allowed capital to be allocated efficiently, fuelling innovation and societal growth. These economic ideas have not only shaped markets but have also deeply influenced social structures and political ideologies worldwide.

Social and political achievements, such as the abolition of slavery, represent significant moral milestones, while the Declaration of Human Rights established a universal framework for human dignity. The establishment of democratic governance has further emphasised individual rights and civic participation, fostering environments where diverse voices can be heard.

In the field of medicine, the development of vaccinations and antibiotics has revolutionised healthcare, saving countless lives and eradicating infectious diseases that once devastated populations. Advances in modern surgery have transformed patient care, showcasing the progress in medical science that continues to enhance the quality of life for many. Agricultural innovations and practices have also played a crucial role in our advancement, leading to increased food production and efficiency. These improvements have allowed societies to flourish and sustain larger populations, highlighting our ability to adapt and innovate in response to challenges.

Cultural innovations, such as the invention of the printing press, revolutionised knowledge dissemination, paving the way for widespread literacy and the exchange of ideas. The development of film and cinema has given rise to a new art form that continues to influence storytelling worldwide, capturing the imagination of audiences across cultures. Ultimately, the evolution of complex languages underscores humanity's ability to communicate intricately and share cultural ideas, further solidifying our legacy as a species defined by its remarkable achievements.

Many more great and monumental achievements have been omitted from this list. Each of these accomplishments, interconnected and built upon the contributions of countless individuals, illustrates the extraordinary journey of humanity and the potential that lies within us.

So then, what is humanity’s magnum opus?

The achievements we celebrate are all means that have significantly enhanced how our species lives, transforming what was once impossible into everyday occurrences. But how can we pick the greatest achievement when there are no clear standards for what makes something "great"? We generally associate greatness with something of immense impact or extraordinary difficulty, but when it comes to measuring and comparing achievements, ranking them becomes complex.

Is the invention of vaccines, which has saved countless lives and eradicated diseases, greater than Keynesian macroeconomics, which has shaped global government policy for nearly a century and guided nations through economic crises? Or perhaps it is the invention and subsequent building of the internet, which, by harnessing data like never before, has revolutionised how we communicate, entertain, learn, and spread information? Each of these accomplishments has its unique context and influence, making direct comparisons challenging.

The common thread that ties all these monumental achievements together is that they ultimately revolve around our experience—our happiness, our ability to live harmoniously in society, our pursuit of biological longevity, and our desire to explore creative interests. It seems to all come down to our individual encounters with the world, both external and internal. Our indomitable spirit drives us forward. It’s about the people we connect with, the nature we observe, the things we create, the stories we tell, and the art we appreciate. These experiences, combined with our thoughts—both private and public—lead me to my own conclusion.

Humanity's continued expression of existence is our magnum opus. It is not merely one great work or a singular achievement; rather, it is the ongoing story of our existence— personal and societal—shaped by our resilience, creativity, and spirit to continually push the boundaries of what it means to be human.

Books

"A room without books is like a body without a soul." — Marcus Tullius Cicero

"There is no friend as loyal as a book." — Ernest Hemingway

"Books are the treasured wealth of the world and the fit inheritance of generations and nations." — Henry David Thoreau

"In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn’t read all the time — none, zero." — Charlie Munger

“It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain an idea without accepting it” — Aristotle

"The reading of all good books is like a conversation with the finest minds of past centuries." — René Descartes

"Reading is to the mind what exercise is to the body." — Joseph Addison

"Books can be dangerous. The best ones should be labeled 'This could change your life.'" — Helen Exley

"The world is a book, and those who do not travel read only one page." — Augustine of Hippo

"A book is a device to ignite the imagination." — Alan Bennett

"Books are the quietest and most constant of friends; they are the most accessible and wisest of counselors, and the most patient of teachers." — Charles William Eliot

"There is more treasure in books than in all the pirate's loot on Treasure Island." — Walt Disney

"Books are the carriers of civilization. Without books, history is silent, literature dumb, science crippled, thought and speculation at a standstill." — Barbara W. Tuchman

"The man who does not read good books has no advantage over the man who cannot read them." — Mark Twain

A Letter to Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger

To Warren and Charlie,

I shed a tear for the first time in a long while on the 28th of November 2023. Strangely, it was a tear for a man who I had never met before, yet it was for someone who has had as much impact on my life as just about anyone else. It was on that day Charlie joined the esteemed ranks of the eminent dead, and while he taught a fair bit while he was alive, hopefully, we can continue to learn even more from him after his passing.  

I’d like to use this letter to express my profound appreciation for and lessons learned from two of the greatest investors of all time, but perhaps more importantly, the two greatest teachers I’ve ever come across.

It would be easy to spend days talking about the investing and business knowledge the two of you have shared, and the lessons learned, as a keen disciple of your investment philosophy. However, that would be selling you two short of the near-infinite wisdom you have shared about life in general and the way to go about things as a human. That is what I would like to focus on today. The worldly wisdom I have learned from two giants of the modern era.

To begin with, when it comes to you two, there is no pretentious intellectualism, you prefer simple but profound wisdom. There is no confusing labyrinth of ideas found in some other thinkers, instead, with your simplicity and clarity comes great benefit for practical application and theoretical understanding. Simple principles and ideas, which when carried out, bring tangible results and outcomes. It is this simplicity that is lacking in the thinking of so many others that often leads to fatal errors, and it is the love of simplicity that lets you two outlast and outperform the others.

The humility you two have displayed throughout is something I believe we can all learn from, for purposes of being a better person and to better achieve our personal goals. You two have constantly been humble about your achievements, upfront and realistic in acknowledging the luck you have received, and truthful in recognising your circles of competence and when you have reached your limits. The ability to not participate in the material excesses and bragging bravado of many others in similar positions, and to be honest about your abilities and their limits are truly underrated traits that have served you well and that many others are still unable to adopt. You have been honest and truthful, acknowledging when you believe you have made mistakes or future performance may not be as good as the past, and while it seems so simple, many are incapable of doing this due to their ego and ambition. But you have not let this humility affect your decision-making and confidence, allowing you to strike the balance of recognising risk and unattractive opportunities, while also being able to make important decisions when the analysis deems it time to take action or inaction.

 Furthermore, you both have displayed a commitment to being rational but human at the same time which has resonated with me. There is a commitment to rationality in all areas of your life, particularly in business. However, you have also acknowledged that we humans are not robots, and there are emotional components we must take care of as well, as part of being a rational creature. I can think of many examples of you two demonstrating this commitment to rationality and humanity but some of them include when you both echo the sentiment about doing something you love for your career, for if you do not love what you are doing, it is hard for a human to excel in the field and personally. Another example is when Warren talks about purchasing his home in Omaha at a young age. Although the more prudent financial decision would have been to invest these funds in equity investments for Warren with his returns for equities likely to far exceed the house gains, there are emotional and human benefits to having stability in your living situations on a personal and family level that cannot be ignored in your decision making. A commitment to rationality should be commended, but a commitment to rationality adapted for the human condition is something I believe to be even better and something we can all learn from you two. At the end of the day, it’s the simple realisation that part of being rational is to ensure our long-term wellbeing and reputation is intact that improves the lives of the decision-makers.

Beyond all, the two of you demonstrate an approach to life that I would call simply being decent people. Whether through the large charity donations and commitments from both of you or the way you two approach business, it shines through much of your quotes and actions, that being a decent person is something we should strive for, for individual and collective reasons. You have shown me that decent people can do well in life, that you can achieve goals without compromising integrity, and when you meet people who do the opposite, simply do your best to avoid them. Do not stoop to their level. You have preached earning your money through doing the right things, rather than shortcuts or trickery, and those who take the long-term view will see that you will make money because of doing the right things, not in spite of them. As Charlie would say, don’t sell anything you wouldn’t buy yourself. There is no perfect person, and being a saint is too hard for most, but being a decent person is something that is not too much to ask of us all.

To this day, one of Charlie’s quotes remains a mantra of life I keep returning to, “You don’t have a lot of envy, you don’t have a lot of resentment, you don’t overspend your income, you stay cheerful in spite of your troubles, you deal with reliable people, and you do what you’re supposed to do. All these simple rules work so well to make your life better.” There are countless more examples of these quotes by both of you, and it is these simple yet profound ideas, that contain the greatest nuggets of wisdom for all those who listen.

More than anything, thank you Warren and Charlie for sharing rather than hoarding. The sharing of your knowledge has paved the way for a lifetime of learning for your students, and most importantly, paved a way for a life well lived. There is no greater truth and compliment from me than to say you two have been the greatest teachers one could ask for.

Gems

“Know all the theories, master all the techniques, but as you touch a human soul be just another human soul.” – Carl Jung

“Be guided by beauty. You might think ‘building a company that’s trading bonds, what’s so aesthetic about that?’ What’s aesthetic about it is doing it right. Getting the right kind of people, approaching the problem, and doing it right…it’s a beautiful thing to do something right.” – Jim Simons

“As you become an adult, you realize that things around you weren't just always there; people made them happen. But only recently have I started to internalize how much tenacity everything requires. That hotel, that park, that railway. The world is a museum of passion projects.” – John Collison

“Whoever gives nothing, has nothing.” – Albert Camus

“Avoid crazy at all costs” – Charlie Munger

“The safest way to try to get what you want is to try to deserve what you want. It’s such a simple idea. It’s the golden rule.” - Charlie Munger

“If at all feasible, you want to manoeuvre yourself into doing something in which you have an intense interest alongside people whose company you enjoy.” - Charlie Munger

“Once upon a time there was a Chinese farmer whose horse ran away. That evening, all of his neighbors came around to commiserate. They said, “We are so sorry to hear your horse has run away. This is most unfortunate.” The farmer said, “Maybe.” The next day the horse came back bringing seven wild horses with it, and in the evening everybody came back and said, “Oh, isn’t that lucky. What a great turn of events. You now have eight horses!” The farmer again said, “Maybe.” The following day his son tried to tame one of the horses, and while riding it, he was thrown and broke his leg. The neighbors then said, “Oh dear, that’s too bad,” and the farmer responded, “Maybe.” The next day the conscription officers came around to conscript people into the army, and they rejected his son because he had a broken leg. Again all the neighbors came around and said, “Isn’t that great!” Again, he said, “Maybe.” The whole process of nature is an integrated process of immense complexity, and it’s really impossible to tell whether anything that happens in it is good or bad — because you never know what will be the consequence of the misfortune; or, you never know what will be the consequences of good fortune.” – Alan Watts

Just Win, Baby

Just Win, Baby. These famous three words by Al Davis have resonated for decades within NFL lore. It’s a simple phrase, yet beneath the boisterous nature of it, lays an important attitude many should learn to embrace. Pure determination and brazen irrational confidence are needed at times, you execute in a rational manner, but you have an irrational belief in the first place that you will succeed.

There exists two groups of people on the opposite end of a spectrum, neither are particularly good groups to be part of. One is those who are full of unjustified confidence, who believe that mere will and headstrongness will lead them to their desired goals. The other group believes strongly in probability and are completely risk-averse, rarely taking action unless they have practically guaranteed odds in every decision they make. While this second group, in my opinion, is better to be part of, it still presents issues if your goal is to achieve a somewhat difficult or ambitious task.

In both instances, perhaps if your goal is not difficult or if you get lucky, you may achieve what you set out to do, but, for those who would like to achieve ends with a higher degree of difficulty and to do so with minimal luck, a balance between these two groups of people must be achieved. It is not that you should not have strong confidence, and you certainly need to be risk-averse, it’s simply a matter of finding the right balance and degree, as confidence with no thinking, or complete risk aversion makes it difficult to achieve difficult and large goals. To clarify, you certainly should always have a high degree of risk aversion and humility to maximise your long-term chances of success, but sometimes your best odds, no matter how great your analysis and ability, due to factors within and outside of your control, will not be close to a guarantee. I would further clarify my point, with the example of Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. While the individual investments made by Buffett are of an extremely risk-averse nature, where Buffett will wait years on end to find a potential asymmetric return investment, with minimum risk and high odds of returns, if you were to set out to achieve what he has achieved in his investing career, it would be extremely hard to rationally justify your potential to recreate his success as a whole. In saying that, if that is your ultimate goal, you must have a degree of irrational confidence to believe you can consistently outperform all your competitors for decades on end, and the way to best maximise your chances of doing this is to make the most rational decisions possible after this point.

Be rational in life, but as part of being rational you may recognise your ultimate goal is an improbable one. If that is the case and you are still steadfast in your goals, you need to be irrationally confident as the most rational path to success. Irrational confidence can funnily create rational success.

Perhaps no better example of irrational confidence, and the importance of it, exists than those who dare commercialise technology. The venture capital industry so far has been built on successful bets in a field where the majority of companies and investments fail. Yet in the face of these odds, venture capitalists and entrepreneurs find a balance. You take calculated risks, and you follow your rationality to achieve the best products possible, all of this with the odds being stacked against you. And in the face of these long odds, you can do nothing else other than to push forward with the task at hand as best you can, with the hopes that your product will gain traction before the coffers run out as it does for most of your competitors and friends. There’s a beautiful balance of irrational confidence in your survival and success, but a calculated rationally and risk-taking to ensure you do not become too foolhardy in your decision-making. When this ethos is achieved, some wonderful things can happen, one only needs to look at the value these technology companies have provided to the world to see what results can happen when you combine belief with rationality.

As a side note, venture capitalists have a better probability proposition for survival most of the time as they are able to diversify across a few companies in their investments, but for entrepreneurs, they tend to only have one or a few opportunities in their lifetime to make their company a success. Some entrepreneurs who possess superior insights and traits may have an advantage probability-wise as they themselves affect the odds of entrepreneurship success, but as a general guide, venture capitalists play a safer game.

 As Nietzsche once wrote, “I know of no better aim of life than that of perishing, animae magnae prodigus, in pursuit of the great and the impossible.” The acknowledgement of your potential for failure, but maintaining confidence in the face of this, and continuing forward is the first mark of acceptance of reality. Anything worth pursuing in life will be difficult, and when your backs are against the wall and you’ve done all the rationalising and planning, all you can do then is to move forward and say Just Win, Baby.

The Pace of Life

In an era filled with increasing comparison, few have avoided the pressures of achievement and success from an increasingly younger age. All is well and good when you have achieved your personal goal, until your neighbour has already achieved the same and some more. It is at this moment where many people meet their biggest obstacle to reasonable decision-making and happiness. It is this feeling of comparison that drives many to increase the pace of their life, in an attempt to catch up or get further ahead than those they see around them. But remember, envy and comparison are the thieves of joy.

With the unprecedented sharing of people’s lives online, where fiction and reality increasingly continue to blur, the modern human experience is one with heightened comparisons and pressure to match the standards of those strangers we see online. The accomplishment of one goal, and the satisfaction one receives from it tends to be instantly trampled on by the witnessing of some other person’s supposedly superior accomplishment. It can and has driven many reasonable and rational individuals to the point of madness, with no way to escape a sense of inadequacy. The pace of life for many has shifted up a gear as we seek to achieve gradually more difficult and impressive tasks, in an attempt to keep up with those we see online and around us.

The truth is, slow and steady tends to win the race. In some instances, the victory occurs because those who come out the gates fastest underestimate the difficulty of endurance and burn out short of the finish line, and in other instances, even though they may have finished the race behind the fast starters and sprinters, the slow and steady have still crossed the same finish line with a more peaceful trip along the way. They have competed the same race and achieved all they need for self-fulfilment, while taking a scenic journey through life. You cannot put a price on peaceful sleeps at night. I believe that those who take a steady and measured approach will achieve what they need to live a fulfilling life while enjoying their journey, and while there will be some who achieve much more and run much further, to not finish first in a race of external standards is no shame. Having enough to feed and raise your family, enjoy the company of friends and enjoy your hobbies is more than enough for a well-lived life. I consider that a victory. In the long run, those with a strong durable foundation, rational life choices, and probability respecting decisions tend to emerge the most fruitful. Life is a marathon not a sprint and we are all travelling at different paces.

My advice? Take a deep breath. Focus on yourself. Find something you love and find meaningful in life, and chip away at it. Year by year. Week by week. Day by day. Hone your craft, take an appropriate amount of pride in your work and find joy in what you are doing. Chances are, at the end of it all, all the strokes of your brush will have filled a vast blank canvas with vibrant colours and detailed images that will be breathtaking if viewed through the lens of lifetime achievement.

Ideas

"The world we have created is a product of our thinking; it cannot be changed without changing our thinking." — Albert Einstein

"If you want to improve the world, start by improving your thoughts." — René Descartes

"Everything begins with an idea." — Earl Nightingale

"The mind is everything. What you think you become." — Buddha

"The only thing that can change the world is an idea whose time has come." — Victor Hugo

"The greatest revolution in the history of mankind is when humanity picks up its brain and changes it." — Marcel Proust